Orhan yokus 2023

EXAMING DECLINE POWER OF THE U.S.A

Abstract: 

Declining power USA is a massive topic in the literature. Scholars have  researched this topic in many ways. This article summarizes how the USA became  a great power and later a superpower. How related economic challenges of the  USA to declining power debate. Relation of the domestic problems such as  political polarization in the USA with USA declining power. How rising powers  challenge the U.S.A. The rising power of China and future threats to the U.S.A.  American political mistakes and military interventions. Affect of Covid-19. At the  end of the article, it criticizes some arguments in the literature. 

Introduction: 

Due to several factors, the United States became a great power after the late 19th  century. One main reason the US became a great power was its geological location.  Great powers could not compete with the US due to the ocean's protection, which gave  the US colossal opportunity. Being far from the bloody European wars allowed the US  to focus on developing itself. Another contributing factor to the US becoming a great  power is its natural resources. The US has vast coal, oil, and natural gas reserves  besides fertile soil. 

Before World War II, American presidents used to follow the isolation policy.  However, after the Pearl Harbor attack, the US joined the allies. During the war, The  US played an essential role in the Allies' victory by providing much-needed military  and economic support. After the war, the world became bipolar with the leadership of  the two superpowers, the USA and the USSR. 

President Harry S. Truman established the Truman Doctrine, and the United States  provided political, military, and economic assistance to all democratic nations under  threat from external or internal authoritarian forces. The US emerged as a dominant  global economic power in the post-war years, with its industries and businesses driving  economic growth and development worldwide through the Marshall plan. The US has  also played a leading role in global politics and international organizations, such as  United Nations. It became a significant contributor to international peacekeeping  efforts. Therefore, the US played a leading role in shaping international politics with its  military, economic, diplomatic, and institutions. In addition to the US technological and  military might, the US has also been a leader in technological and scientific innovation,  with many of the world's most influential companies and institutions based in the  country. Overall, the US superpower statute is about a combination of many reasons. 

Reasons of Why the U.S. Power Declines:  

The United States has long been the world's dominant superpower, significantly  influencing international relations and global politics. On the other hand, the decline of  American power has been a topic of discussion and debate among scholars,  policymakers, and the general public for decades. There is no doubt that the United States, once the undisputed global leader in economic, military, and political spheres, has seen its influence decline in recent years. This decline is linked to various factors,  including economic, political, and social developments within the country and changes  in the global balance of power 

The first reason American power is declining is related to the economic challenges that  America faces. The country's GDP growth has been slow since the 2008 financial  crisis, and it has not returned to the levels of growth seen in the post-World War II  period. The United States has an increasing national debt, which has grown to more  than $30 trillion(Forbes, 2022). Furthermore, The United States has experienced slow  economic growth and rising income inequality in recent years. Therefore, these  economic challenges have contributed to a decline in American power, weakening the  country's ability to invest in its military, infrastructure, and other areas essential to  maintaining global influence. 

Secondly, the United States has become increasingly politically polarized lately, with  Democrats and Republicans increasing problems over various issues. Domestic  problems have also contributed to the decline of US power, such as political  polarization, declining infrastructure, and growing inequality. The Democratic and  Republican parties have become more ideologically distinct in recent years. For  example, an American woman ex-soldier who got Iraq Campaign Medal got shot by  police during the U.S. capitol rioting in 2021(N.Y. Times, 2021). These issues have  made it more difficult for the United States to address challenges at home and abroad  effectively. Therefore, the president and the government need help to get things done  quickly, which has led some to believe that the country's political power is declining.  We also saw that problem often during the Trump leadership; for example, Trump  could not build the Mexican wall. Also, The country is deeply divided along party  lines, leading to a paralysis of the political system. The inability of the government to  effectively address pressing issues such as immigration, healthcare, and climate change  has weakened the country's ability to lead on the global stage. The divisions within the  country have also made it more difficult for the United States to form stable  partnerships and alliances with other countries, further corrupting its power. 

One of the other main reason for the decline in US power is the rise of other countries.  In the past, the USA was the dominant economic, military, and political force on the  global stage, with no real competitors. However, in recent years, other countries have  emerged as major players and are increasingly challenging the USA's dominance.  China, in particular, has been a significant factor in the decline of US power. China has  experienced rapid economic growth and is now the second world's largest economy.  Goldman Sachs projected that the total size of China's economy will surpass the US in  2027(Joseph S. Nye Jr, 2010). Therefore, China may have more global influence and  power than the USA. In recent years, China has used this power to assert itself in  various ways, including the new Chinese project' Belt and Road Initiative, which aims  to build infrastructure and increase economic ties with countries worldwide. China has  also made significant investments in military capabilities and has become more  assertive in international relations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. As a result,  the US had to contend with increased competition from China, weakening its global  position and facing the fear of losing the first position(Randall, 2011). However,  America is still mighty due to alliances, military capability, and economy. 

Power transactions have always been challenging in history. For example, The "Thucydides Trap" refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace a  ruling power, it can lead to a violent conflict. This idea comes from the ancient Greek  historian Thucydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens and  Sparta in the 5th century BC. Today's American and Chinese political relations are  similar to Athens and Sparta in the past(Graham Allison, 2015). Therefore, both states  have a high risk of conflicts, and future clashes may appear. However, the U.S. has a  smart power which used often. China is geopolitically covered by many American  allies such as Japan, India, and Australia. China cannot compete against the U.S. on its  own and cannot dare to start a world war, as we see in the Taiwanese crises.  

On the other hand, Other countries, such as Brazil, and Russia, have also seen  significant growth and have begun to challenge the United States in various ways.  These rising powers have been able to capitalize on their large populations and  abundant natural resources, using their influence to assert themselves on the global  stage. 

Another reason is the increasing cost of military interventions and their strain on the  US military and economy. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been very costly and  have reduced the resources available for other priorities. The intervention has high  direct costs, including the loss of human lives, infrastructure destruction, and regional  destabilization. "The conflict was extremely expensive and more or less used up the  U.S. gold reserves that had been so plentiful since 1945." (Immanuel Wallerstein; The  Decline of American Power). All of these factors have contributed to a decline in  American power.  

The US used to be a role model to other states as a beacon of democracy and freedom.  However, The Covid pandemic has also proved to the world how the US is vulnerable.  The United States has traditionally been a leader in global health crises, but the state  has struggled to play a leading role in the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite being the most  powerful country in the world, America had the most deaths and sick Covid 19 cases in  the world because of mismanagement(Kate Tulenko, 2020). It damaged the image of  the US, and the United States is no longer a reliable leader on the global stage.

Critizing the Literature: 

There are many arguments in the literature about how the declining power of America  began. For example, Immanuel Wallerstein believes it began with the Vietnam war,  which cost almost the American gold budget. According to him, the war was a turning  point because the war was longer than Americans expected and costly for the USA. The  war resulted in the loss of many lives and created significant social and political  debates in the homeland. Wallerstein is accurate that the war has undoubtedly damaged  the US reputation and international image. However, he is exaggerating the situation.  Overall, The U.S. economy kept growing during the war and the post-Vietnam war era.  The U.S. military remained powerful and technologically advanced. The U.S. remained  the dominant power and became the hegemon after the post cold war.  

Another important argument is about the economy in the literature. Some scholars may  be too dramatic and pessimistic about the future of the U.S. For example, scholars used  to discuss this topic and accumulated that Germany and Japan would have passed the  U.S. economy in the 80s; however, they could not. Therefore, the U.S. still has the  biggest economy in the world and one of the highest credit ratings among the other  nations(Jason Furman, 2019). Even if China has passed the U.S. in the 21st century,  there is no guarantee that China may continue stability due to autocratic management.  The U.S.'s power not only comes from big companies and huge budgets. It comes from  many things, such as America being the number one attractive state worldwide for  qualified immigrants, the U.S. has the best universities worldwide, and a well-educated  labor force is key to economic success in the information age(Joseph S. Nye Jr, 2014). 

Conclusion: 

Overall, "nations are not like humans with predictable life spans."(Joseph s. Nye JR.).  Many nations have already challenged the U.S., but ultimately, the U.S. is number one.  Accumulations show us that China will surpass the U.S. economically in the 21st  century, but the U.S. relationship is based on alliances rather than ideological hate or  colonies. Therefore, the U.S. has more instruments to compete against China by all  means, such as smart power, being the most attractive and innovative country, and  military mighty. Finally, even if America loses the top 1 economy race against China, it  will become less dominant only and still be more powerful than China

References 

Alfred W. McCoy, In the Shadows of the American Century The Rise and Decline of  US Global Power, Haymarket Books, 2017 

Francis Shor, Dying Empire: U.S. imperialism and global resistance, New York,  Routledge, 2010 

Francis Shor, Declining US Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for  Conflict?, 2012 

Graham Allison, The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?, 2015 

Immanuel Wallerstein, The Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World,  August 1, 2003 

Inside the Deadly Capitol Shooting - NewYork Times.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/capitol-police-shooting-ashli-babbitt.html 

Joseph S. Nye, Jr, The Future of American Power Dominance and Decline in  Perspective, 2010 

Joseph S. Nye, Jr, American and Chinese Power after the Financial Crisis, 2010 

Kate Tulenko and Dominique Vervoort, Cracks in the System: The Effects of the  Coronavirus Pandemic on Public Health Systems, 2020 

Randall L. Schweller and Xiaoyu Pu, After Unipolarity China’s Visions of  International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline, 2011 

Richard Wike, Changing Global Perceptions of the U.S. in the Post-Sept. 11 Era From  Hyperpower to Declining Power, 2011 

U.S. National Debt Surpasses $30 Trillion: What This Means For You - Forbes.  https://www.forbes.com/advisor/debt-relief/u-s-national-debt-surpasses-30-trillion what-this-means-for-you/