Turkey-Greece Energy Rivalries: Natural Gas, Pipelines, and 

Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract:

This article offers a comprehensive analysis of the disputes and conflicts surrounding the exploration and extraction of natural gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean region. It delves into the intricate geopolitical dynamics, alliances, and rivalries among the countries in the area, focusing particularly on Turkey and Greece. The article sheds light on the consequences of these conflicts on regional security dynamics and alliances, while also highlighting the potential risks and challenges they entail. Furthermore, it explores the notable gas discoveries in the region and the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline Project. By critically evaluating the efficacy of diplomatic initiatives and mediation attempts, the article presents practical recommendations for conflict resolution and regional cooperation. Employing a qualitative research approach, this study draws on an extensive review of relevant literature, including articles and reports. It employs a comparative analysis of the historical background, political developments, and international relations specific to the Eastern Mediterranean region. Additionally, it examines the roles played by external powers, such as the European Union and the United States, in mediating these conflicts.

Introduction:

The eastern Mediterranean region besides geographical importance, the regions also known for its rich natural gas reserves which have attracted various states and big international energy companies that want to extract these resources.  In the last two decades, significant amounts of natural gas have been discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Various research reports show that the Levantine basin can provide more than 60 trillion cubic feet of gas. According to the U.S.  Geological Survey, more than 122 trillion cubic feet of gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil lie in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. (John Bowlus, 2020) Therefore countries in the region that have so far been dependent on energy imports had the opportunity to produce their own gas. Thus future discoveries are expected to change the energy dependence on Russia and it may change the current balance of power in the region.

Turkey is at the center of the Eastern Mediterranean geographical location gives an important position in that region. Turkey has one of the longest shorelines in the area and became an important key player in exploration and production with the purchase of the Oruc Reis ship, and a combination of military, diplomatic and economic means. Turkey is willing to protect its strategic interest, be part of the energy security and trying to make agreements with other actors.

Turkey’s actions in the region is mostly taken in order to pursue national interest and find alternative energy resources.  The region has crucial importance for Turkey because its energy source heavily relies on imports. Turkey aims to increase its own regional influence and become a key player in the Mediterranean.

However, Turkey’s approach to pursuing its energy interest in the Eastern Mediterranean has created concerns among its neighbours and the international community. Turkey has rivalries with Cyprus Greece, and disputes with other neighbour states over maritime borders and resources exploration create high tensions in the region. In return, Turkey has deployed naval vessels and drilling rigs in contested waters which has met with criticism and opposition. Greece and Cyprus has accused Turkey as a violating their sovereignty and international law.

Greece and Cyprus as neighbour countries of Turkey with historical ties and shared cultural relations have formed alliances in order to counterbalance Turkey’s influence in the region. They are willing to expand their sovereignty, maritime boundaries, and exclusive economic zones by claiming more than they have to. They are also part of the European Union and already received support in political means.

Beyond those three countries, there are several actors in the region. Israel is another regional power and it has already discovered a significant amount of resources by having clashes with Lebanon. On the other hand, in recent years Russia with its historical ties and wishes to the Eastern Mediterranean has also increased its existence in the region by using Syria. Russia has one of the vast natural resources and is deeply concerned about disputes over the region. The US is also concerned well deeply over the debate due to both participant state Turkey and Greece are NATO members. The US is afraid of such problems may cause bigger threats among its own allies which may lead to declining in trust.

Regional powers within the Eastern Mediterranean regions seem to navigate cooperation as well. Even though maritime borders disagreements exist. These cooperative initiatives such as energy infrastructure projects, joint exploration attempts, and regional forums, provide opportunities for dialogue and the potential for shared benefits. However, these cooperations create further problems due to the competition for energy resources, strategic dominance and the wish of having more influence over the region.

Impact of Dispute on Regional Security Dynamics and Alliances:

The disputes have created polarization of alliances. It led to the formation of alliances among the regional Powers and deepened their cooperation such as the cooperation of Greece Cyprus and Egypt. On the other hand, Turkey has created partnerships with other actors to secure its position. 

The involvement of external Powers such as the EU has created further complicates the region in the security meaning. These Powers may have their own strategic interest in the regional conflicts which may create a potential Proxy conflict.

Both participants state Turkey and Greece are NATO members. It raised concerns about the potential inner conflicts among the NATO alliances.

After the exploration and extraction of resources, it created the energy balance and dependency of countries in the region, potentially altering existing energy trade routes and alliances. Thus created energy security concerns among the actors in the region.

Potential Risks and Challenges

The recent disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have several risks and challenges that may create potential risks and raise tensions of regional stability. Such as:

The existence of naval vessels and military actions in disputed waters increases the risk of accidental clashes and military escalation. High tension and potential political mistakes raise concerns about potential armed conflict. Eastern Mediterranean Gas Discoveries

Uncertainty and fear of the future create a negative impact on the economy which reduces cooperation and development in the region. It can lead that topic to the disruption of trade routes declining economic growth of the regional states and reduce stability.

Diplomatic Standoffs: Diplomatic relations between countries involved in the disputes can become strained, leading to an impasse in negotiations and diplomatic standoffs. This can hinder efforts to find peaceful resolutions and exacerbate tensions.

Finally, Potential instability and more conflicts may cause less stability which may lead to new refugee and migration challenges.

Eastern Mediterranean Gas Discoveries

Significant amount of gas discovered in the region by Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus.  According to Noble Energy data, the Zohr gas field is the largest and can provide 850 million cubic meters of natural gas for Egypt. After that, Leviathan and Tamar  gas fields can provide over 800 million cubic meters of natural gas for Israel.  Another important Aphrodite gas field can provide over 140 million cubic meters of  natural gas for Cyprus. 

Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline Project 

Due to natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean sea, Eastern  Mediterranean (EastMed) pipeline Project approved to export natural gas through  Greek and Italian Governments. EastMed is a 1,900km long natural gas pipeline  project to connect the gas reserves of the eastern Mediterranean to Greece to export  gas. Pipeline will be able to have an initial capacity to transport ten billion cubic  meters of gas per year to Greece and Italy and other South-East European countries.  Capacity expected to be increased to a maximum 200 billion cubic meters per year in  the second phase. 

Since Turkey has already announced its Maritime Boundary and made the EEZs  agreement with Libya, EastMed Project seems to look rather unrealistic because  Turkey will not allow such actions without own participation. 

Dispute Between Cyprus and Turkey 

Countries need agreements in order to expand their EEZs and pursue their claims  legally. According to that, Cyprus attempts succeeded and did bilateral agreements  which define EEZ of signed countries with Egypt in March 2004, and Lebanon in  January 2007. (Roby Nathanson, 2012) Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, and Greece's natural  gas agreements, by not being involved in these discussions, Turkey was bothered. In  addition, Cyprus drilling activities were not welcomed by Turkey. Because Cyprus  shared licenses in its own claimed EEZs without taking the Northern part into  account not giving the northern part of the island any meaningful share of EEZs  rights. (Cain Burdeau, 2020)

On the contrary, Turkey argues that such agreements cannot be achieved if Cyprus  wants some lands from the Northern part or asks Turkey to stop defending Northern  Cyprus. Thus Turkey reiterated protection without sacrificing the rights in the  eastern Mediterranean and Turkey has launched its drilling activities in the part of  Cyprus claimed EEZ. So basically, both country's claims are overlapping. Usually to  solve the overlapping problems, two countries make a mutual agreement by sharing  the zone equally where a medium line is drawn in between territories. In order to  claim such zones, countries would need to make announcements for the Maritime  Boundary and sign agreements under EEZs with other countries. But both countries  are far from cooperation or any kind of agreement yet. 

Turkey-Greece Overlapping Claims 

According to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and  Maritime Boundary, every state has the right to establish the territorial sea from  baselines up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, so it gives full sovereignty if  there are no other countries nearby. But it changes if there is another country within  the calculations, then will drop to 6 nautical miles. 

Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) extend 200 nautical miles from the baseline.  Within this EEZ area, the coastal nation has sole exploitation rights over all natural  resources and economic means. In casual use, the term may include the territorial sea  and even the continental shelf. 

On 6 August 2020 Egypt and Greece signed the EEZ treaty and announced their  maritime boundary contrary to international law. But in order to establish EEZ  according to international law, firstly there must be a sea border between countries.  Therefore, Turkey’s position with regard to the location and role of the Islands for  determining jurisdiction is distinctive from the mainland. There are no coastal areas  between Greece and Egypt on the principle of a mutual maritime border. So this  agreement is illegitimate in many aspects; it violates the 1969 Vienna Convention on  the Law of the treaties that foresees that two states can not agree to violate a third  states rights, in breach with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea due to  the registered maritime borders by Turkey at the UN. In addition to Greece, Turkey  did the same thing with Libya to balancing the threat(Sami Kiraz, 2023). Maritime Boundary announcement and new EEZ  agreement strengthens Turkey’s position. Moreover, Turkey also seems to be  working with its neighboring countries because according to Turkey’s calculations if  Egypt was to make a deal with Turkey, Egypt’s EEZs will dramatically increase by  6000 kilometers. This is because Turkey has the longest shore in the Eastern  Mediterranean region.

Another key argument for Greece and Turkey is Megisti Island. This island causes a  significant impact on both countries' interests because Greece argues that it can  expand its zone to 12 thousand nautical miles for all of its islands. This means that  besides the Aegean sea, Greece can expand its own maritime boundary even in the  Mediterranean sea by using the Megisti Island. (Eric Eissler, 2014) This would leave  Turkey with next to nothing. On the other hand, Turkey argues that such small  islands cannot be used to make any claims if there is a mainland nearby. This means  Turkey will have the priority and right to claim EEZs and Maritime Boundary  without counting any Greek islands. 

To better understand this situation we have to look into similar cases that happened  in history. For example, in 1977-1978 the UK and France had similar problems and  THE UK tried to expand its zone to take control of water for the channel of islands  but the conflict resulted in France’s favor. Another example, in 1985 Libya and  

Malta had a similar debate, but in the end, Malta reduced the maritime boundary in  favor of Libya. To sum up, as seen in the research examples, islands do not  automatically generate full maritime boundary or EEZs jurisdiction areas with  international law. Especially if the island or islands have any connections to the  mainland or belong to a country, as that country will have its own zone. If a country  has no neighbors nearby then it could use its islands for the expansion of its zones, as  there will not be any overlapping issues, disputes, or complaints. (Andreas Østhagen,  2021) 

Diplomatic Initiatives and Mediation Attempts

Several international actors have been involved in diplomatic initiatives and mediation attempts to facilitate dialogue and find peaceful resolutions to disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The EU has played an important role in mediating the conflicts. EU has created negotiations encouraged dialogue and supported the resolutions of disputes through peaceful means. EU recognizes Turkey’s drilling activities as unauthorized action.

The US is another important key actor in the region. It has a strategic interest because potential discoveries may result in a substitute the Russian energy and reduce the dependency of Europe on Russia. The US has strong ties with Greece respecting and already Greece's mainland is heavily militarized by the US forces. Current high tensions with Turkey created a strict relationship between both NATO allies. Therefore, the US most likely calms both participants and solves the problem without other actors' involvement according to the UNCLOS.

Russia has historical ties over the region and geopolitical interests. Also, Russia is the biggest supporter of Syria. Also, potential discoveries may reduce the dependence on Russian energy. Therefore, Russia has a direct interest and trying to protect its own position and have more advantages by balancing the participants.

Israel has security concerns and created regional alliances with Greece and Cyprus by signing EastMed Project. But, since Turkey has an agreement with Libya EastMed Project may not be successful. Therefore, Israel is open to potential multilateral agreements with other actors. In that case, Israel may see it as a smart power.

Analysing Effectiveness of Conflict and Challenges

The effectiveness of international mediation and conflict resolution efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean has been mixed, with significant challenges hindering progress. Some key factors to consider include:

Political Will: The willingness of the parties involved to engage in meaningful dialogue and compromise is crucial for successful mediation. Differences in positions, conflicting interests, and domestic politics can create obstacles to finding common ground and reaching sustainable agreements.

The complexity of the Issues: The disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean are multifaceted, involving overlapping claims, historical grievances, and intricate geopolitical dynamics. Resolving these complex issues requires a comprehensive and nuanced approach, which can pose challenges to mediators and extend the time required to achieve a resolution.

Trust Deficit: Building trust among the parties involved is essential for effective mediation. Deep-rooted mistrust, previous conflicts, and ongoing tensions can hinder the establishment of trust, making it challenging to facilitate meaningful dialogue and compromise.

External Interference: The involvement of external powers in the region can complicate mediation efforts. Geopolitical rivalries and competing interests among these external actors can influence the dynamics of the conflicts and potentially undermine mediation attempts.

Legal Framework and Implementation: Adhering to international law, including UNCLOS, is a key aspect of resolving disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, implementing legal decisions and finding mutually acceptable solutions within the legal framework can be challenging, particularly when parties hold divergent interpretations of international law.

Potential Conflict Resolution

Actors should be open to potential dialogues and diplomacy. In the end, they may find mutually acceptable solutions and engage in constructive discissions will build more trust in the end.

International mediation efforts are important for the conflict. International organizations such as the EU and UN may find a resolution. Facilitating negotiations and providing neutral platforms for dialogue and diplomacy finally will create a solution.

Strengthening regional security cooperation mechanisms, such as the exchange of information, joint military exercises, and confidence-building measures, can contribute to reducing the risk of military escalation and fostering a more stable security environment.

Encouraging economic cooperation among countries in the Eastern Mediterranean can promote shared interests and contribute to regional stability. Joint development projects, such as energy infrastructure initiatives, can promote economic integration, strengthen interdependence, and mitigate conflicts over resources.(Rebecca 2018)

Conclusion

Turkey and Greece are NATO allies, being in constant conflict will not benefit both countries. However, what appears right now is that both countries will not take a step back. Besides the two rivals, the influence of other powers is also important. The EU  wants to support Greece in this dispute at any cost because Greece is a member country and also natural resources are valuable for the EU itself because according to the U.S geological survey, Eastern Mediterranean resources could supply 76 years of gas consumption in the European Union. However, the situation does not affect Turkey when it comes to sanctions. Germany, Poland, Spain, Hungary, and Italy are the leading countries that think it would be unfair to apply strict sanctions on Turkey.  This is because it would create a backfire effect on these countries as they have many trade agreements with Turkey, which could put the EU economy in danger.  On the other hand, the USA, Russia and China's opinions will be important in the future.  Greece is waiting on the American government to settle with regard to their new  President and his new foreign policies. However, Turkey is NATO's 2nd largest and strongest ally, and because of this, it will be difficult for the U.S. to pick a side. Russia is mostly interested in being able to stay in the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea to defend itself against NATO and to expand its geopolitical and strategic ability.  Russia is hoping that it can find new allies in Libya and Syria to increase its lifespan in this region. They are also willing to participate to resolve issues and disputes between all parties. But the downside for Russia is that it could lose its European  Market's custom dramatically on selling gas when the Eastern Mediterranean Fields become fully operational and the pipelines are installed. But still, there is not much  Russia can do about it other than reducing its gas prices. China respects the sovereignty of the states involved. The eastern Mediterranean Sea disputes are not good for China because of the critical alliances and Chinese port projects in the region.

Reference:
Andreas Østhagen, Troubled seas? The changing politics of maritime boundary  disputes, 2021 

Cain Burdeaua, Eastern Mediterranean Turns Into Source of Gas and Conflict, 2020 

Eric R Eissler, Gözde Arasıl, Maritime Boundary Delimitation in the Eastern  Mediterranean: A New Conflict between Cyprus, Turkey, Greece and Israel?, 2014 

John V. Bowlus Eastern Mediterranean gas: Testing the field, 2020  

Rebecca Bornstein 2018 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGIONAL DYNAMICS: CONFLICTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION SUPPORT

Roby Nathanson, Ro'ee Levy, Natural Gas in the Eastern Mediterranean: Casus Belli  or Chance for Regional Cooperation?, 2012

Sami Kiraz, 2023 The Link between Libyan Civil War and the Eastern Mediterranean Issue in Turkish Foreign Policy: Balancing the Threat